Forecasting LQ45 Shares Using ARIMA Method aim the COVID-19 Pandemic in Indonesia

  • Fitri Susilowati
  • Suryanto

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to study Covid-19's thoughts on the LQ45 stock
price. Stock price fluctuations by investors, where investor behaviour will also be influenced
by external factors such as global economic developments. The pandemic caused by Covid-19
forced investors to wait and see. How much influence Covid-19 on the LQ-45 stock price is
interesting to investigate. This study relies on secondary data to analyze share price
movements. Secondary data needed for analysis is the LQ-45 stock price daily data in January,
February, and March 2020. The data was be analyzed with a quantitative approach, namely the
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), to produce a three-month stock price
forecast model. ARIMA has the advantage of being used as a method to obtain an estimation
model by relying on the stock price data itself. The results showed that the estimation model
with ARIMA obtained the best model for IHSG LQ 45 was DLQ45 AR (2) d (1) MA (1) or
ARIMA (2,1,1). This model supports it, adding to the LQ45 share price every day because of
the Covid-19 period. If the Covid-19 pandemic emergency period is not ended in Indonesia and
the world, there will be a threatening crisis in Indonesia.

Published
2021-03-31